What Does The North Korean Artillery Attack On South Korea's Yeongpyeong Island Mean?

From ROK Drop:

By GI Korea on November 23rd, 2010 at 9:27 pm


What Does the North Korean Artillery Attack On South Korea’s Yeongpyeong Island Mean?

» by GI Korea in: North Korea

As I am sure everyone is well aware of the latest North Korean provocation against South Korea with their unprovoked artillery barrage against Yeongpyeong Island along the maritime border between the two Koreas. Here is a YouTube video courtesy of the Marmot’s Hole who by the way has a good run down on the attack everyone should check out:







The fact there was a provocation in this area is not surprising considering past bloody naval engagements that have happened in this area to include the sinking of the Cheonan earlier this year by North Korea which killed 46 ROK sailors. This is the first time that the North Koreans have fired artillery on one of the South Korean controlled islands however. Considering the North Koreans have tried to assassinate past ROK presidents, blown civilian airliners out of the air, launched commando raids against the South, among a host of other provocations; firing artillery on a South Korean island is actually pretty tame by North Korean standards.





South Korean villagers watch smoke rising from South Korea's Yeonpyeong island near the border against North Korea Tuesday, Nov. 23, 2010. North Korea fired artillery barrages onto the South Korean island near their disputed border Tuesday, setting buildings alight and prompting South Korea to return fire and scramble fighter jets.

This map here provides a good overview of where Yeongpyeong Island is located at on Korea’s west coast:







Here is a map provided by STRATFOR that provides more details about the location of the attack:







The North Koreans are sending a reminder of the destruction they could cause if they shelled a more populated area such as Ganghwa Island, Incheon International Airport, or an area on the mainland like the Kimpo peninsula. Sending 80 rounds of artillery into one of the apartment complexes in these areas would cause enormous loss of life. The North Koreans are playing a game of chicken to see how much they can get away with to pressure the South Koreans and the international community to give them the aid and money that they want to keep quite again for a while. As I mentioned earlier in the past week the Obama administration has rightfully not been paying off the Kim Jong-il regime to behave like his predecessors have done. Will this continue? The North Koreans are betting that the Lee Myung-bak government in South Korea and the Obama administration will back down from their policies if they up the pressure enough. Would the North Koreans up the pressure by hitting a densely populated area with artillery? Considering their past terror attacks I would not discount this possibility. In fact I wouldn’t discount them launching a terror bombing somewhere within South Korea and deny responsibility for it to further up the pressure against the South Korean government.



If the US and South Korean governments give in and give the North Koreans the aid and money that they want this would also serve as major propaganda boost for the “Young General” Kim Jong-un who is being groomed to take over for his dad Kim Jong-il. There is no way that Kim Jong-un launched this attack, but he will be given credit for it by the North Korean propaganda machine and if the US and South Korea make concessions because of the attack it would only further build his image within the context of North Korean propaganda.



So what will the US and the South Koreans do? President Lee Myung-bak is vowing to retaliate:



South Korea’s president called on his military forces to use “action” and not talk to punish North Korea for deadly artillery attacks on Tuesday, but international diplomats appealed for restraint.



“The provocation this time can be regarded as an invasion of South Korean territory. In particular, indiscriminate attacks on civilians are a grave matter,” President Lee Myung-bak said at the headquarters of the Joint Chiefs of Staff here, according to South Korea’s Yonhap news agency.



“Enormous retaliation is going to be necessary to make North Korea incapable of provoking us again,” Lee said.



“Given that North Korea maintains an offensive posture, I think the army, the navy and the air force should unite and retaliate against (the North’s) provocation with multiple-fold firepower,” he said. [via the Marmot's Hole]



Lee will likely have to do something, but considering that he has to balance keeping the confidence of the international community in the South Korean economy any response is likely to be pretty light. I for one think that if the South wanted to retaliate it should have destroyed the military bases that launched the attacks right after the attack. The longer Lee waits the more time it gives the North Koreans and lets not forget the Chinese, time to use their useful idiots to pin the blame on the South Korean government for the attack as ridiculous as that claim sounds. Remember this is what they did with the sinking of the Cheonan. So if the North Koreans were able to murder 46 ROK sailors, they will get away with this latest attack as well.