Saturday, September 10, 2011

BEYOND THE TENTH YEAR IN AFGHANISTAN: SECURITY FORCE ASSISTANCE AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY

From FPRI:

BEYOND THE TENTH YEAR IN AFGHANISTAN:


SECURITY FORCE ASSISTANCE AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY



by William B. Caldwell, IV. and Derek S. Reveron



Ten years ago, Afghanistan was politically fractured,

economically irrelevant, and socially repressive. The

Taliban government, recognized by only three countries at

the time, reduced the nation's GDP per capita to under $170,

almost completely destroyed public infrastructure, and

ruptured Afghanistan into a conglomeration of belligerent

localities, geographically isolated from one another.

Afghanistan hosted al-Qa'ida and we soon learned what the

latest National Military Strategy of the United States

underscored, "In this interdependent world, the enduring

interests of the United States are increasingly tied to

those of other state and non-state actors." Afghanistan is

no exception.



While Taliban totalitarianism attempted to destroy Afghans'

future, the international community has attempted to reverse

societal regression. To be sure, Afghanistan still has many

challenges, but it is also not the fragmented society it

once was either. Insurgent groups still conduct attacks,

primarily in the south and east, but much has changed in ten

years-Afghanistan is now sovereign, the international

community is heavily invested in the future of Afghanistan,

and their society is slowly recovering. With international

assistance, GDP has increased to $1,000 per capita, almost

all Afghans have access to basic health services, and school

enrollment increased from 900,000 (mainly boys) to almost

seven million (37 percent girls). Women now serve in

Parliament and even train to be pilots in the Afghan Air

Force. Most of the country is now connected via mobile

phones, highways, and common purpose-assuming responsibility

for its own security, which remains threatened by various

insurgent groups.



Internationally, Afghanistan is not the pariah it once was

and it is on the verge of helping to link Central and South

Asia along a new Silk Road. India is providing $2 billion

worth of assistance; Uzbekistan is building rail links in

the north; and China is investing in the east. In short,

Afghanistan is attempting to normalize its international

relations and is on a path that President Obama outlined at

West Point on December 1, 2009 to "deny al Qaeda a safe

haven...reverse the Taliban's momentum and deny it the

ability to overthrow the government_ and strengthen the

capacity of Afghanistan's security forces and government so

that they can take the lead responsibility for Afghanistan's

future." In contrast to other ethnically-diverse countries

wracked by years of war, Afghans overwhelmingly favor a

unified, multi-ethnic country where ISAF members are

welcomed as guests.



To be sure, progress is dependent on international support

for Afghanistan, but as agreed at the NATO summit in Lisbon

last fall, Kabul will increasingly assume lead

responsibility for its development and security. This

process started in July of this year when the first seven

areas began to transition lead security responsibility from

NATO to Afghanistan. Far from an anomaly, this international

approach to enabling other governments to provide security

for their people is a contemporary feature of U.S. national

security. As former secretary of Defense Robert Gates wrote,

"building partner capacity: helping others defend themselves

or, if necessary, fight alongside U.S. forces by providing

them with equipment, training, or other forms of security

assistance_[because] building the security capacity of other

countries must be a critical element of U.S. national

security strategy." These ideas are being practiced in

Afghanistan every day and have enabled the Afghan Surge.



THE AFGHAN SURGE

When the United States surged an additional 30,000 troops to

Afghanistan, they supported the training of Afghan soldiers

and police that now number 305,000. The growth is not only a

testament to the strength of partnership between the

international community and the government of Afghanistan,

but also Afghans' willingness to heed the call to defend

their country and determine their future. Taken together,

the combined NATO-Afghan force provides security "shoulder-

to-shoulder," in Dari shohna ba shohna, and in Pashtu ooga-

pa-ooga. NATO forces are partnered with Afghan units at many

levels and make the ultimate sacrifice too (last year Afghan

security personnel were killed at a rate one and half times

greater than coalition forces). This unfortunate fact is

both a reminder of the dangers insurgents pose and the

Afghans' heavy engagement in the fight for control of their

country. But the costs are beginning to show progress. In

July, NATO transitioned lead security responsibility to

Afghan forces in seven areas. The transition process will

continue through 2014 when NATO will shift to a supporting

role and underscores the importance of training, equipping,

and fielding a self-sustaining and enduring Afghan Army, Air

Force, and Police.



Former Minister of Interior Ali Jalali wrote in Prism in

September 2010, "the key to future success is a shared

vision for the end-state in Afghanistan, and the building of

indigenous capacity to achieve this goal." Afghan

presidential advsior Dr. Ashraf Ghani wrote in the same

issue, "the success of the counteroffensive will be judged

by its role in the larger project of

counterinsurgency-creating the enabling environment for a

stable political and economic system that can turn both

Afghan citizens and regional players into stakeholders in

its success." An underappreciated fact is that this is the

Afghans' war. Minister of Defense Wardak, Minister of

Interior Mohammadi, Chief of General Staff Karimi, Ground

Force Commander Murad Ali, and Sergeant Major Roshan are its

leaders. Every day, Afghan soldiers and police are

conducting patrols in Helmand, interdicting insurgents in

Paktika, and recovering weapons caches in Khost. ISAF forces

are certainly essential to these efforts today, but it is

with Afghans that combined operations protect the

population, build institutions, and deprive insurgents the

support they need. And over the next three years, ISAF

operations will yield to Afghan-led operations. This process

coupled with increased growth and professionalization is

enabling the Afghan military and police to assume greater

responsibility for security and self-reliance.



BEYOND GROWTH

Over the next year, the Afghan Army, Air Force, and Afghan

National Police will continue to grow from 305,000 and reach

their combined authorized end strength of 352,000. At the

same time Afghan infantry kandaks (battalions) replace ISAF

combat forces, the Afghan Army will also develop the

critical enabling and supporting capabilities. With its own

logistic capability, the army will be able to deliver

supplies to forward deployed units. With its own explosive

ordinance disposal units, the army will be able to defuse

improvised explosive devices left by insurgents; and with

its own air force, Afghanistan will have the capability to

support its forces in the field or assist with regional

disaster relief operations.



Afghan police are making progress too. Initially saddled by

disparate training programs and lacking civilian police

trainers, the Afghan National Police did not grow as easily

as the Army did. With the importance of civil policing to

assist social recovery, the Ministry of Interior revised its

training program to develop an Afghan curriculum based on

best practices from the European Union Police, German Police

Project Team, NATO countries, and non-NATO countries. The

curriculum advances Afghan civil policing through various

topics such as: criminal investigation fundamentals, human

rights, and gender issues. Given the security environment

and its starting point, it will take several years to impart

civil policing norms, but Afghan police are benefiting from

partnerships with organizations such as Royal Canadian

Mounted Police, Italian Caribinieri, French Gendarmerie, and

other members of the European Gendarmerie Force.



The progress of these efforts is evident in our daily

activities with Afghan policymakers, military, and police

leaders. Minister of Interior Mohammadi told the Afghan

National Police Symposium in January, "To win the support

and confidence of the people and provide for the personal

security of the citizens, we are determined to concentrate

more on developing civilian policing capacities of the ANP."

And President Karzai told an audience at the March National

Military Academy of Afghanistan graduation, "We understand

that the people of Afghanistan no longer want to see others

defend for them_The transition is the answer to the long

held aspirations of the people of Afghanistan." For this to

occur, recruited forces need to be trained, equipped,

fielded, and sustained.



Recruit and Train



Every day, more than 32,000 Afghan personnel are in training

at 70 sites across 21 provinces in Afghanistan, and in

selected courses in the United Arab Emirates and Turkey. The

results are evident. In just two short years, the Afghan

National Army went from using Soviet-era equipment to more

modern NATO weapons. Weapons qualifications rates increased

dramatically and Afghans learned to conduct convoy

operations. Soldiers once unable to count or read are now

enrolled in mandatory literacy training.



An unfortunate reality is that those eligible for military

and police service had their educations stolen by decades of

war. While Afghans have a proud warrior ethos and tactical

intelligence, they lacked the ability to write their names

or count to ten. To make up for the shortfall, all

illiterate Afghan soldiers and police recruits are enrolled

in mandatory literacy programs to ensure they reach the

international standard for literacy. Currently, about 3,000

Afghan teachers are following Afghan Ministry of Education

guidelines to help recruits overcome the illiteracy barrier.

We see the effect in the force and see literacy as the

essential enabler. Literate soldiers and police can now

account for the gear they are issued and know that they are

receiving their full pay. And soldiers subjected to graft

now receive a living wage through electronic banking.

Finally, literate soldiers can read the service manuals for

the equipment they are issued and perform the necessary

services and repair equipment to ensure the significant

investment in vehicles and equipment is maintained and

accounted for properly. The international investment in the

literacy program is showing progress; the literacy rate in

the army and police will be twice that of the population in

2012.



Professionalize and Sustain



Since 2009, international focus has been on fielding trained

infantry to meet the needs of counterinsurgency with

additional combat fighting formations. Attrition in the Army

remains stubborn, but the force will continue to grow

another 47,000 over the next year with increased emphasis on

specialty or vocational training. Today, Afghans are

studying to be mechanics, engineers, and personnel

specialists. There are now 12 vocational schools that

provide Afghans the skill sets they need to sustain the

force the international community invested so heavily in.

Shifting from an ISAF-enabled infantry to a professional and

self-sustaining Afghan force will occur over the next

several years, but with an indigenous training base, a

process that is on-going.



Since the NATO Training Mission-Afghanistan was created in

November 2009, investing in Afghan human capital has been a

priority. Through the "Afghan First" program, NATO is

supporting indigenous industries to supply uniforms,

equipment, and services to the Afghan military and police.

Under the Afghan First program, about 17,000 Afghan jobs

were created; this facilitates the development of legitimate

commerce, reduces cross-border transactions, and

institutionalizes transparent procurement mechanisms.

Further, supporting local industry reduces international

dependency and lays a foundation for sustainability.



Building enduring systems and institutions is a central

feature of the NATO strategy in Afghanistan. Lessons from

other conflict-prone societies suggest that sustainment is

essential to secure short-term gains and give a war-stricken

society a chance to recover. Given the investment made over

the last ten years and the priority of supporting

Afghanistan's stability, the international community and the

Afghan government reaffirmed a long-term commitment to a

better future for the Afghan people at last fall's summit in

Lisbon. Specifically, NATO and Afghan leaders agreed to

"sustaining and improving their capacity and capability to

counter threats to the security, stability and integrity of

Afghanistan effectively, and contributing to regional

security; and doing so with full respect for Afghan

sovereignty and leadership, in a manner consistent with and

supportive of the Afghan constitution and international law

and recognizing the sacrifices and the ongoing endeavors of

the Afghan people for achieving peace." To realize these

goals, army and police professionalization continues apace.



The effects are evident. Dr. Ashraf Ghani, who now oversees

the security transition process for President Karzai, noted,

"The Afghan National Army has had an enormous change both in

quality and in numbers." He told us that perceptions of the

Afghan Army and Police are at least two years old. More

importantly, the Afghan people agree. In a November 2010

Asia Foundation poll, 92 percent of Afghans viewed the

Afghan National Army favorably, while 84 percent viewed the

police favorably. In a May International Council on Security

and Development poll, 82 percent of northern Afghans saw the

army as effective compared to 67 percent of southern

Afghans. There are regional differences, but with

international support and training, Afghan soldiers and

police are beginning to show progress. And the Afghan people

increasingly trust and value their soldiers and police. This

is evident in the thousands of Afghans who report to

military and police recruiting stations every month, which

is the surest sign that Afghans want to take charge of their

future and relieve NATO forces of lead security

responsibility. The challenge remains to make the gains

enduring and the Afghan forces self-sustaining.



ESSENTIAL PARTNERSHIP

The progress made over the past two years would not have

been possible without the generous support of the

international community through partnership. Before the

creation of the NATO Training Mission-Afghanistan there were

disparate efforts with insufficient resources to properly

train and equip the Afghan Army and Police. Today, there are

35 countries (Ukraine and El Salvador are the newest)

providing trainers who are training both new recruits and

Afghan trainers to take their places. This is a clear sign

that the international community is committed to giving

Afghanistan the tools to control its borders, provide

security for its people, and contribute to regional

security.



Countries increasingly recognize that training Afghanistan's

police and military is essential to long-term stability in

Afghanistan and Central Asia. Further, developing,

employing, and sustaining the Afghan National Army, Air

Force, and Police ensures Afghanistan can be a net

contributor to international security rather than a

consumer. With a growing indigenous training base, over the

next several years, the government of Afghanistan will not

be dependent on foreign trainers and endeavors to become a

regional hub for peacekeeping training, pilot training, and

vehicle maintenance.



Reflecting on ten years of United States involvement in

Afghanistan, we recognize the greatest long-term effect we

can have is through partnership. Through partnership, the

training base has expanded and the benefits of partnership

are evident in the fielded force. Our Afghan counterparts

know the languages and terrain of Afghanistan and share

unique cultural insights with NATO forces. Most importantly,

we see hope here that was not here two years ago; with the

proper resources, Afghans can do this mission, which is

supported through security force assistance.



INSIGHTS FROM COMMAND

Our experience in Afghanistan resonates across conflict from

the last 20 years and informs our thinking about future

military operations. While NATO Training Mission-Afghanistan

personnel are working hard with Afghans to develop Afghan

security forces, we are reflecting on the challenges,

successes, and opportunities the mission created. Among

these is the importance of international cooperation, which

undergirds efforts in Afghanistan. This is apparent in

listening to the different languages spoken from Kandahar to

Kabul. Far from an anomaly, partnership remains a key

feature of efforts in Afghanistan and more broadly for

international security.



The collective international experience in Afghanistan must

inform future thinking about the roles and missions of the

U.S. military. U.S. Army Chief of Staff General Martin

Dempsey pointed out in the Army Operating Concept that,

"future Army forces require the capability to conduct

security force assistance and civil military operations

(such as military support to governance, rule of law, and

institutional capacity building) in a multinational

environment with partners and among diverse populations to

support allies and partners, protect and reassure

populations, and isolate and defeat enemies." While we

practice this daily, we continue to redefine the

configuration and employment of conventional assets to build

the capacity of Afghanistan's security sector. We must

capture the lessons and deliberately incorporate them into

U.S. thinking and doctrine.



The U.S. military appears to be at a new, albeit familiar

crossroads. In the 1980s, the United States recognized the

importance of joint operations and worked to improve

cooperation among the military services. In the 1990s,

coalition warfare became the norm and interoperability took

on an international character. In the 2000s, military

operations incorporated interagency capabilities, which

leveraged a whole of government approach to

counterinsurgency and stability operations. In the 2010s, it

is imperative we recognize security force assistance is a

core function of military operations. It is time to evaluate

the shift from combat operations to security force

assistance and work together to consider the implications

for the size, shape, scope, and doctrine of future forces.

Ten years since the 9/11 terrorist attacks, we must be ready

to enable partners through security assistance to eliminate

security deficits that threaten international peace and

security.



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Copyright Foreign Policy Research Institute

(http://www.fpri.org/).

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