From Fierce Government:
Al Qaeda's terrorist campaign may last another 15-20 years and perhaps longer if its trajectory matches those of comparable terrorist movements, according to a February Rand report (.pdf).
Read more: Al Qaeda likely to last at least another 15-20 years, says Rand - FierceHomelandSecurity http://www.fiercehomelandsecurity.com/story/al-qaeda-likely-last-least-another-15-20-years/2012-03-14?utm_medium=nl&utm_source=internal#ixzz1pDzCzcyt
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Al Qaeda likely to last at least another 15-20 years, says Rand
Al Qaeda's terrorist campaign may last another 15-20 years and perhaps longer if its trajectory matches those of comparable terrorist movements, according to a February Rand report (.pdf).The report says terrorist campaigns that persist for decades--such as Hezbollah's or the insurgency in Colombia--tend to have large constituencies, support from ethnic or religious communities, sanctuaries in remote areas, adequate financing and, often, connections with criminal activities. Al Qaeda's large following on the Internet, presence in local movements, geographic sanctuaries and sufficient funding indicate it can last at least several more decades, according to report author Brian Jenkins.
Jenkins, a senior adviser at Rand who has also advised the government and private sector on terrorism, points out that al Qaeda could exploit a Taliban resurgence in Afghanistan, radicalization in Pakistan or new Islamist regimes in the Middle East.
Additionally, the report notes, al Qaeda's leaders see the conflict with the United States as part of a ongoing hostility to Islam that includes the 11th century Crusades and 19th century European colonial powers. For al Qaeda, war is a perpetual condition, as opposed to the finite wars Americans are used to.
So even with al Qaeda diminished, many of its leaders dead or captured and the Arab Spring demonstrating the group's lack of popular appeal, Americans' urge for formal closure is unlikely to come, the report says. Al Qaeda is too dispersed to defeat entirely and has no inclination to surrender or compromise.
Plus, the United States has reason not to declare formally that the war is over, because that would alter the legal framework that currently lets the United States kill al Qaeda's leaders and detain people as enemy combatants.
For more:
- download the report, "Al Qaeda in Its Third Decade: Irreversible Decline or Imminent Victory?" (.pdf)
- download the report, "Al Qaeda in Its Third Decade: Irreversible Decline or Imminent Victory?" (.pdf)
Read more: Al Qaeda likely to last at least another 15-20 years, says Rand - FierceHomelandSecurity http://www.fiercehomelandsecurity.com/story/al-qaeda-likely-last-least-another-15-20-years/2012-03-14?utm_medium=nl&utm_source=internal#ixzz1pDzCzcyt
Subscribe: http://www.fiercehomelandsecurity.com/signup?sourceform=Viral-Tynt-FierceHomelandSecurity-FierceHomelandSecurity
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