What's Happening In The Afghan-Taliban Talks?

From Reuters:

Factbox: What's happening in the Afghan-Taliban talks?




By Patrick Markey



KABUL
Fri Oct 22, 2010 5:03am EDT



KABUL (Reuters) - Afghanistan's President Hamid Karzai says his government has made preliminary contacts with Taliban insurgents as Afghan, U.S. and NATO officials look for a possible negotiated exit to a war now entering its tenth year.



The Taliban themselves dismiss talks as propaganda, and there have been often conflicting media reports about the level of contact with insurgents and who exactly is involved.



Here are some details on what has been reported, what has been said in public and who the key players are:



WHAT HAS BEEN REPORTED ON TALKS:



* Much of the flurry over talks began after the Washington Post reported Karzai's government had held secret talks with Taliban representatives. The Post cited Afghan and Arab sources, who said the representatives spoke for the Quetta Shura Taliban leadership based in Pakistan and top leader Mohammad Omar.



* Citing various sources, Reuters reported all main parties in the conflict were now considering ways to reach a deal. But the sources, including NATO, Afghan and non-American officials, said the "talks about talks" were preliminary and fragile.



* The New York Times, citing mainly Afghan sources, reported "extensive face-to-face" talks between Karzai's inner circle and high level Taliban commanders who left Pakistan with NATO's help. In one case, the Times reported, Taliban leaders boarded a NATO aircraft. Taliban leader Mullah Omar had been cut out of the talks, it said, but the hardline, al-Qaeda linked Haqqani faction was involved.



WHAT OFFICIALS SAY IN PUBLIC:



* Karzai says there have been preliminary contacts with the Taliban, although no direct negotiations. Afghan government officials acknowledge there have had on-again, off-again contacts with the Taliban over the past two years.



* Senior U.S. envoy for Afghanistan and Pakistan, Richard Holbrooke, dismissed reports of secret talks while U.S. General David Petraeus said NATO-led forces "facilitated" passage of a senior Taliban commander to Kabul. U.S. officials say that meant logistics or "moving people to meeting locations." Petraeus said contacts were not at the level of negotiations.



* U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton called it "a complex effort that is just beginning" and U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates said Washington would do "whatever it takes."



* NATO's top Afghanistan representative, Mark Sedwill said contacts are "channels of communications" with significant Taliban but it was unclear whether they represented factions or wider groups. "It's not even yet talks about talks," he said.



* Afghan Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid rejected media reports of secret negotiations, repeating a long-standing demand for all foreign troops to leave Afghanistan.



THE KEY PLAYERS:



* AFGHAN PRESIDENT HAMID KARZAI - The Afghan leader has long advocated talks with the Taliban. Karzai recently set up a peace council to broker talks and some say he may use it to soften preconditions for negotiations, which include insurgents renouncing al Qaeda and violence and respecting the constitution.


AFGHANISTAN'S TALIBAN - Afghanistan's largest insurgent force, the Taliban were ousted from power in 2001 by U.S.-backed Afghan forces. They now have a stronghold in southern Afghanistan but are spreading their insurgency to other areas.




HEZB-I-ISLAMI GULBUDDIN - The most moderate of the main insurgent groups, Hezb-i-Islami, is run by veteran commander Gulbuddin Hekmatyar. U.S. officials say he is looking to position himself for a role in a future government. In March, the group sent a delegation to Kabul for talks, but produced no results.



HAQQANI NETWORK - The militant Haqqani network is seen as closer to al Qaeda and has a long history of ties to Pakistan's spy services. Allied with the Taliban, the Haqqani group operates in southeastern and northern parts of the country, but often works independently of the Taliban, U.S. officials say.



PAKISTAN - Vital to U.S. efforts in Afghanistan because of its contacts with militant groups, Pakistan's government says reaching a peace deal will be impossible without its help. Islamabad says it is "part of the solution," but U.S. officials say elements of Pakistan's ISI spy agency back insurgents.



SAUDI ARABIA - The host of previous talks with the Taliban, Saudi Arabia has been touted by Karzai's peace council as a possible mediator. Saudi Arabia was one of the three countries that recognized the Taliban government in the past.



OBAMA ADMINISTRATION AND NATO -- President Barack Obama's administration wants to start bringing U.S. troops back from Afghanistan from July next year and the U.S. leader and NATO allies are under pressure at home over the increasingly unpopular war. U.S. officials want negotiations to respect its "red lines" -- insurgents must renounce al Qaeda, lay down arms and respect the Afghan constitution.



(Reporting by Patrick Markey; Editing by Paul Tait and Miral Fahmy)



And, related, also from Reuters;
 
Pakistan kept in the dark about Afghan peace contacts




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Afghanistan »

By Zeeshan Haider



ISLAMABAD
Fri Oct 22, 2010 6:22am EDT



ISLAMABAD (Reuters) - Pakistan is being kept out of efforts by the Afghan government and the United States to end nearly a decade of war with the Taliban, which could be a sign of Washington's mistrust of Islamabad's intentions.



NATO and Afghan officials have confirmed preliminary contacts between President Hamid Karzai's government and the Taliban, whose leadership is based in Pakistan's northwestern frontier province and the Baluchistan capital of Quetta.



Pakistan's sway over the insurgents makes it a key ally for Washington in its attempts to stabilize Afghanistan, but Islamabad's reluctance to crack down on what it sees as insurance in any Afghan settlement has also angered the United States.



"We haven't been consulted or informed or asked to facilitate any talks. We are not in the loop," a senior Pakistani security official told Reuters on condition of anonymity.



Other officials said they were aware of these contacts but they had not been taken into confidence about anything.



The Obama administration is under pressure to show successes in Afghanistan ahead of a December strategy review and the planned start of a troop drawdown set to begin next July.



Analysts say NATO's facilitation of the Afghan talks without involving Pakistan could be aimed at pressuring it into taking tougher action against the militants who fuel violence in Afghanistan from their Pakistani sanctuaries.



"Perhaps this is another attempt by NATO to send a warning message to Pakistan that unless it adheres more to NATO's line, Pakistan can be excluded from these talks," said Ahmed Rashid, a journalist and expert on Islamist militancy.



The U.S. forces have stepped up a military campaign in Afghanistan and also intensified missile strikes by pilotless drone aircraft and helicopter incursions on militants' safe havens on the Pakistani side of the border.



Such a strike this month, in which two Pakistani soldiers were killed, infuriated Pakistan and led it to shut down a supply route for NATO, while militants and gunmen attacked convoys along the second main route.



Although Pakistan is officially an ally in NATO's campaign against militancy in Afghanistan, it has been accused of playing a double game by covertly supporting activists fighting there.



The Pentagon this month expressed concern that some elements of Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) agency had interactions with the insurgents that "may be seen as supporting terrorist groups rather than going after them."



UNREALISTIC APPROACH



Pakistani officials, meeting in Washington this week for a "strategic dialogue" where Afghanistan is likely to loom large, are adamant that peace in Afghanistan is not possible without Islamabad's help.



"Nothing can be done without us because we are part of solution. We are not part of the problem," Prime Minister Yusuf Raza Gilani told reporters last week.



Another security official was more blunt.




"Without Pakistan or the ISI, it's not going to work. ... Let them try their options," he told Reuters.



Ahmed said Pakistan had a "lot of cards" to scuttle any efforts to end war in Afghanistan.



"The most significant card is that all main Taliban leaders ... are living in Pakistan and Pakistanis can exert pressure on them."



Pakistan could use these leaders and their factions as bargaining chips as efforts to stabilize Afghanistan gather pace and also check the growing influence of its arch-rival India in Afghanistan.



But despite its dominant role in Afghanistan, there is a limit to Pakistan's influence over Taliban as well, analysts say.



"The Taliban will take care of Pakistan's interests but not at the cost of their own interests. This is very clear because it will damage their credibility among Afghans," said Rahimullah Yusufzai, an expert on tribal and militant affairs. "ISI also knows this and it will not put too much pressure on the Taliban."



Rashid said Pakistan's role was crucial in shaping up a final settlement to the Afghan problem, but it should also address concerns of the international community.



"The Pakistan military should show more understanding of the interests of other regional countries in Afghanistan. I don't think it's happening right now."



(Additional reporting by Kamran Haider; Editing by Chris Allbritton and Miral Fahmy)



And, also related, from Reuters:
 
Afghan insurgents dismiss peace talks, NATO upbeat

By Sayed Salahuddin



KABUL
Fri Oct 22, 2010 10:50am EDT



KABUL (Reuters) - Mid-level Taliban insurgency commanders do not believe their leaders have begun tentative peace talks with the Afghan government, with many vowing on Friday not to give up the fight after nearly 10 years of war.



NATO and Afghan officials have reported preliminary contacts between President Hamid Karzai's government and the Taliban, although doubt surrounds when those contacts were made, who they were made with and what, if any, progress was made.



Karzai is pushing a negotiated settlement to the conflict and has launched a High Peace Council which has said it is prepared to offer concessions to bring insurgents to the table. Kabul and Washington say fighters must renounce violence.



Insurgency commanders from across Afghanistan indicated they were not involved in the initial contacts.



"No one has come so far and sat with the government and there is no hope that the Taliban will come and negotiate," said Abdullah Nasrat, Taliban commander for Girishk district in the southern province of Helmand, a traditional Taliban stronghold.



"We basically hear the reports of talks through the press and do not believe in them," he told Reuters by telephone. "As long as foreign forces are in Afghanistan, there will be no talks. Our morale is high."



Violence in Afghanistan is at its worst since the Taliban were ousted by U.S.-backed Afghan forces in late 2001. Record civilian and military casualties will weigh heavily when U.S. President Barack Obama conducts a strategy review in December.



The war will be a central part of discussions at a NATO summit in Lisbon next month.



Providing an upbeat assessment of recent offensives, NATO Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen told reporters in Berlin that insurgents in Afghanistan were on the back foot.



"The insurgency is under pressure, under pressure like never before in Afghanistan. Our aim for this year was to regain momentum," Rasmussen said. "Now we have it."



NATO commanders say the number of operations targeting senior Taliban members has increased dramatically since Obama authorized a 30,000 increase in U.S. troops last December.



Tarak Barkawi, a defense expert at Britain's Cambridge University, said the stepped up activity, driven by U.S. and NATO commander General David Petraeus, aimed to put pressure on the insurgents while encouraging them to seek reconciliation.



He said the strategy had been backed by a big increase in special forces activity, and in the use of unnmanned aircraft to target insurgents in Afghanistan and Pakistan's tribal areas.



"Petraeus is fighting a much more kinetic war. He's let loose the airstrikes a bit more; there's a huge special forces war going that's largely outside of media coverage," he said.



"They have set up a killing machine that is absolutely relentless in the pressure it's putting on the insurgents. They are clearly now killing off various commanders in the Taliban hierarchies, which is inflicting some serious pain."