Tue Nov 23, 1:21 pm ET
Tensions on the Korean peninsula: What you need to know
By Zachary Roth
..By Zachary Roth zachary Roth – Tue Nov 23, 1:21 pm ET
Tensions are near the boiling point on the Korean peninsula after North Korea shelled a South Korean island, killing two South Korean soldiers. What's behind this latest spike in hostilities between the longtime adversaries, and just how concerned should we be -- especially since we have 25,000 military personnel stationed in South Korea? Here's what you need to know.What happened, exactly?
Early Tuesday, North Korea fired artillery shells at the South Korean island of Yeonpyeong, which sits off the disputed maritime border between the two countries. The attack killed two South Korean marines and wounded 18 soldiers and civilians. It prompted an exchange of fire between the two sides, involving around 175 artillery shells and lasting about an hour.
The North accused South Korea of having started the exchange by firing shells inside North Korean territory during a set of South Korean military exercises that the North called "war maneuvers." The South denies that charge, saying that its soldiers were merely conducting military drills and that no shots fell in North Korean territory.
The North Korean attack was the first on a civilian area of South Korea since the Korean War.
[Photos: North Korea fires on island of Yeonpyeong]
Why did this happen now?
Tensions have been running high since March, when a South Korean naval vessel in the same area was sunk, killing 46 sailors. Seoul blamed a North Korean torpedo attack, though the North has denied involvement. Then earlier this month, the South Korean navy fired warning shots at a North Korean fishing boat after the craft strayed across the border. The North Korean boat retreated.
Some analysts have linked Tuesday's action by the North to the impoverished nation's need for food. The Obama administration has refused to remove sanctions against the North, imposed in response to its nuclear program. "They see that they can't pressure Washington, so they've taken South Korea hostage again," Choi Jin-wook, a senior researcher with the South Korean Institute for National Unification, told the New York Times. "They're in a desperate situation, and they want food immediately, not next year."
Does this have anything to do with North Korea's leadership situation?
Kim Jong Il, the North's ailing and reclusive leader, is believed to be gradually shifting power over to his son, Kim Jong Un, who in September was promoted to the rank of four-star general.
[Related: U.S. boy found in China, protesting for Korean peace]
Some analysts believe the transition has made North Korea eager to demonstrate its military power. Kim Jong Il famously employed an aggressive "military first" approach to politics, and spoke of turning the North Korean army into a "pillar of the revolution." The regime may now want to show the world that the same military-first policies will prevail under his successor. "The son's power base is derived from the military, and the power of [the] military is greater than ever," Cheong Seong-Chang, a fellow at the Seoul-based Sejong Institute, told Time magazine.
How has the world reacted?
The United States, Britain and Japan have condemned the North Korean attack, with America calling on the North to "halt its belligerent action." China said it was "concerned," while Russia has urged restraint and a peaceful solution to the crisis.
What's the U.S. role in all this?
The United States wants North Korea to resume the six-party talks on the country's nuclear program. The talks, which also include Russia, China, Japan in addition to America and the two Koreas, were launched in 2003, after North Korea opted out of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty. The talks' aim is to arrive at a peaceful diplomatic agreement to contain the North's nuclear capacity -- but the talks have been in limbo since 2008, and earlier this week, an American scientist revealed that he had been shown a sophisticated North Korean nuclear enrichment facility, throwing the resumption of the talks into further doubt.
[More details: U.S., China disagree on more nuke talks with N. Korea]
Today's incident adds another obstacle, experts say.
The revelation of the uranium facility and Tuesday's attack on South Korea may both be expressions of the North's concern that the Obama administration and its allies are unlikely to offer concessions such as the easing of sanctions. "I think they realize they can't expect anything from Washington or Seoul for several months, so I think they made the provocation," Choi Jin-wook, senior researcher at the Korea Institute of National Unification, told CNN.
How scared should we be?
South Korea has placed its military on "crisis status," and Prime Minister Lee Myung-bak has reportedly ordered strikes on North Korea's missile base if the North makes any "indication of further provocation." It appears unlikely, though not impossible, that further military action will result.
[Photos: N. Korean leader Kim Jong Il and more]
South Korea does not have an active nuclear weapons program. North Korea is believed already to have eight to 12 nuclear bombs. But nuclear issues aside, any military conflict between the countries could badly destabilize the region, especially if the North Korean government were to collapse -- an outcome that some South Koreans fear could lead to a Chinese takeover.
(Photo: Yonhap via AP)
And this, related, from Common Dreams.org:
Published on Tuesday, November 23, 2010 by The Age (Australia)
Korea Tensions Soar as Deadly Attack Launched
by John Garnaut, Beijing
North Korea's young dictator-in-waiting has burnished his leadership credentials by launching a deadly artillery raid on South Korean territory, causing Seoul to scramble F16 jet fighters and return fire.
Two South Korean marines were killed and at least 15 people were wounded as shells rained down on Yeonpyeong island, off the north-west coast of South Korea.
Hundreds of terrified residents huddled in bunkers or fled by boat as buildings and trees went up in flames and smoke billowed above the island.
The attack occurred half way between Seoul and the Yellow Sea location where 46 South Korean sailors were sunk in a torpedo attack in March.
Seoul returned fire with 80 shells and scrambled fighter jets over the island. It also put its military on the highest alert level as President Lee Myung-bak ordered officials to ''respond sternly'' but to avoid aggravating the situation.
Pyongyang last night claimed Seoul had fired first. ''The South Korean enemy, despite our repeated warnings, committed reckless military provocations of firing artillery shells into our maritime territory,'' the North's military command said.
It said the North would ''continue to make merciless military attacks with no hesitation if the South Korean enemy dares to invade our sea territory by 0.001 mm. It is our military's traditional response to quell provocative actions with a merciless thunderbolt''.
The attack added to fears set off last week when the North revealed a previously unknown uranium enrichment facility.
The attack on the island drew international condemnation and prompted plans for an emergency session of the United Nations Security Council.
Washington called on North Korea to ''halt its belligerent action'' and ''fully abide'' by the armistice deal that ended the 1950-53 Korean War.
''The United States is firmly committed to the defence of our ally, the Republic of [South] Korea, and to the maintenance of regional peace and stability.''
In Japan, which has long had difficult relations with the reclusive state, Prime Minister Naoto Kan ordered his government to prepare for any eventuality.
In Canberra, Prime Minister Julia Gillard expressed ''grave concern at this dangerous provocation by North Korea'' and said the government was consulting with South Korea, Japan and the US over the situation.
Foreign Minister Kevin Rudd also expressed fear. ''This is bad for the stability and security of the region,'' he told Sky News.
China, Pyongyang's only major ally, urged a resumption of six-nation talks aimed at ending the North's nuclear program. ''We express concern over the situation,'' a foreign ministry spokesman said. ''It is China's consistent and firm position to realise de-nuclearisation on the [Korean] peninsula through dialogue and consultation.''
Zhang Liangui, a North Korea expert at Beijing's Central Party School, told The Age that Kim Jong-un, 26-year-old son of dictator Kim Jong-il and his anointed successor, was deliberately destabilising his environment to mobilise the military and consolidate his power. There have been previous skirmishes along the border but the stakes are getting higher.
Yesterday's exchange comes days after North Korea revealed the existence of a uranium enrichment facility to an American scientist. Siegfried Hecker told The New York Times he was ''stunned'' by the plant's sophistication, which North Korea said was operating 2000 centrifuges.
If verified, this would take Pyongyang towards building far more powerful warheads than the eight to 12 plutonium-based warheads it is estimated to have built over the past five years.
Stephen Bosworth, the US Special Representative for North Korea, arrived in China last night to brief officials on Pyongyang's new enrichment facilities.
North Korea is believed to lack technology to shrink warheads and deliver them accurately, but it still has one of the world's largest concentrations of conventional weapons lined along the 38th parallel.
While China does not support Pyongyang's nuclear program, it has repeatedly sheltered it from international punishment and allegedly failed to strictly enforce anti-proliferation measures. China has twice hosted Kim Jong-il this year and generally pushed for closer ties.
North Korea's behaviour will be an embarrassment for China as President Hu Jintao prepares to visit Washington in January, the first official head of state visit since 1997.
Professor Zhang said the latest episode was unlikely to escalate because the North was mainly ''venting anger''. He said it wanted concessions from Seoul and recognition from the global community.
North Korea does not recognise the border unilaterally drawn by the UN at the close of the Korean War. The two Koreas have fought three bloody skirmishes near the maritime border in recent years.
With agencies
Copyright © 2010 Fairfax Media
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